Behind closed doors, North Carolina lawmakers have been quietly debating for weeks how they might enact new abortion restrictions in the Tar Heel State.
The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last summer to overturn Roe vs. Wade, leaving abortion laws up to the states, prompted multiple GOP-controlled states to impose new restrictions. And North Carolina Republicans have said they want to do the same.
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After all, some anti-abortion voters and organizations that have supported Republicans for years want to restrict the procedure as much as possible.
However, the political landscape is different in North Carolina than it is elsewhere in the South.
Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper occupies the executive mansion and can veto abortion bills he doesn’t like. He has done that in the past, saying abortion decisions should stay between patients and their medical providers.
Legislators can override the governor’s vetoes if their effort receives support from a supermajority of lawmakers — and the GOP now has a veto-proof majority, following state Rep. Tricia Cotham’s decision to switch parties and join Republicans this month.
On paper, it might look like Republicans can now pass whatever they want. The reality, though, is more complicated.
For one, Cotham’s support isn’t guaranteed. While she has declined to comment on pending abortion legislation, she has a history of defending reproductive rights. On the House floor in 2015, Cotham recalled her own experience terminating a pregnancy while speaking against a proposed waiting period for abortions. And earlier this year, she filed a bill that would have codified abortion protections from Roe v. Wade in state law.
The GOP also can’t propose abortion rules so strict that they repel moderate Republicans — in the legislature or on the campaign trail. North Carolina’s electorate isn’t as red as states that have strict abortion bans.
Then there’s the state’s reputation to consider. State leaders on both sides of the aisle campaign on North Carolina’s economic success. And, since the controversial HB2 bathroom law was adopted and later repealed, top legislators have been mindful not to push laws that might hinder North Carolina’s ability to recruit big corporations.
Indeed, North Carolina lawmakers will need to thread a needle to impose new abortion restrictions. Still, abortion opponents have waited decades for this opportunity, so they’re pressuring the GOP to act. And House Speaker Tim Moore has said his chamber expects to file a proposal in the next few weeks.
As details come together, here’s what you need to know:
What is the law?
In North Carolina, abortions during the first 20 weeks of pregnancy are lawful. After 20 weeks, the procedure is only allowed in cases where there’s a medical emergency.
Abortions can only be performed by a physician in a hospital that’s licensed by the state’s Department of Health and Human Services.
State law defines an emergency as a situation that could cause her death “or for which a delay will create serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function, not including any psychological or emotional conditions.”
The law also outlines that certain conditions are not a medical emergency, saying: “No condition shall be deemed a medical emergency if based on a claim or diagnosis that the woman will engage in conduct which would result in her death or in substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function.”
How does NC compare to other states?
North Carolina’s 20-week ban is more restrictive than many northeastern and western states but less restrictive than many other states in the South.
Virginia bans abortion after fetal viability, which generally starts around the 24th week. South Carolina lawmakers are currently trying to tighten their 20-week ban. They’ve pushed for laws that would ban abortion at six weeks, with bills offering varying exceptions.
Georgia bans abortion after the sixth week of pregnancy. Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama and several other states ban abortion with very few exceptions.
With several southern states imposing harsh restrictions within the last year, North Carolina’s current law makes it a destination for people elsewhere in the South who can’t access abortion in their home state.
What is being discussed?
Republicans in the North Carolina legislature have yet to unify around one proposal.
Senate Leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, has said he supports a ban after the first trimester, often defined as the 12th week of pregnancy. He also supports abortions later in pregnancy for cases of rape and incest or when the mother’s life is in danger.
In the House, legislators are pushing for tighter restrictions.
Moore, the House Speaker, has said he supports at the time an ultrasound first detects fetal cardiac activity — typically about six weeks after fertilization. In many cases, that’s before patients even know they are pregnant.
He reminded like-minded conservatives recently, though: “My job as the speaker is to get legislation that will pass into law.”
A trio of House Republicans last month filed a bill that would ban abortion at the point of conception — legislation that’s doomed to fail. Members of the state House have been working privately to craft legislation, and Moore’s office says the conception bill isn’t a product of those meetings.
"I'd say there's support at six [weeks], there's support at 12," Moore said on Feb. 28. "There's a varied opinion in the [Republican] caucus. There's some who'd probably say, ‘Leave it at 20.’"
What do NC voters want?
Most North Carolinians support keeping the abortion ban at 20 weeks, according to polls conducted last year by WRAL News and SurveyUSA.
Stricter proposals have left those survey-takers divided. The 1,100 adults surveyed last fall were nearly evenly split on a federal proposal to ban abortion nationwide after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Many Americans, though, are unfamiliar with their local abortion laws and inconsistent in their stated opinions. In a poll conducted last summer, some of the same people who said they supported a 20-week ban also said the state should restrict abortion after six weeks.
Nationally, voters have grown more permissive of abortion over the years. A little more than 60% of U.S. adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to the Pew Research Center. Another 37% said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
Among those abortion opponents, 46% told Pew the procedure should be legal if the pregnancy threatens the health or life of the woman. And 36% said it should be legal if the pregnancy results from rape.
Will new restrictions have political ramifications?
Abortion will likely be a top issue in the next election regardless of how North Carolina lawmakers handle the restrictions this year.
Legislators are up for election again 2024, when presidential candidates and gubernatorial candidates will also be on the ballot. Those races will drive turnout — and those candidates are expected to center the issue.
Broadly speaking, backlash to the Supreme Court’s abortion decision boosted Democratic candidates in the midterm elections, according to analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a healthcare research group. So the Democratic nominee will campaign on expanding reproductive rights.
In North Carolina, Democrats will campaign on the idea that, if Republicans win the Governor’s Mansion and keep a supermajority in the legislature, they’ll pursue stricter abortion laws than they can this year.
Many political insiders expect Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson to be the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee. Robinson, who is expected to announce his candidacy later this month, has compared abortion to murder. He recently acknowledged publicly that he paid for an abortion in 1989.
This year’s proposed abortion restrictions, combined with Robinson’s rhetoric, will almost certainly be a factor in who wins the 2024 elections.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.