U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop officially launched his bid for North Carolina attorney general Friday, leading some political analysts to arrive at this crystal-ball observation: If he and other Republican front-runners win their primaries, the state GOP would field its most divisive ticket in recent memory.
Polling shows that former President Donald Trump, who was indicted this week for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, is favored to win the GOP nomination for president. North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has made derogatory comments about women and the LGBTQ community, is considered the frontrunner in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
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Trump, Robinson, and Bishop could potentially lock in a “confrontational, populist type of conservatism” for Republicans across the state, said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College.
That could both generate enthusiasm for Republicans. It could also expose them to more attacks from Democrats, who will use the trio’s controversial stances against the GOP among more moderate voters.
Robinson and Bishop for years have placed culture war battles, particularly around LGBTQ rights, at the center of their political brands. Trump is also starting to echo similar language as Republicans nationwide push back on transgender rights. He acknowledged the party’s newfound focus on the issue during a speech at the North Carolina GOP convention in June.
“I’m talking about cutting taxes, people go like that,” Trump said, mimicking an unenthusiastic clap. “I talk about transgender, everyone goes crazy. Who would’ve thought? Five years ago, you didn’t know what the hell it was.”
Top GOP lawmakers have expressed some concern about how recent indictments might affect Trump in a general election. Republican political strategists, meanwhile, have questioned Robinson’s ability to win his race, despite strong fundraising and polls. Meanwhile, Bishop has earned his own reputation as a firebrand.
Since being elected to serve his Charlotte-area congressional district in 2019, Bishop has become one of the most vocal members of the House Freedom Caucus and has attempted to block legislation to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling — deals that were needed to avert government shutdowns. He also opposed the certification of some 2020 presidential election results.
As a state legislator, Bishop in 2016 helped write the controversial HB2 law that limited bathroom use of transgender people. What became known as the “bathroom bill” prompted protests from businesses and sports organizations who viewed it as needlessly discriminatory. They canceled events and planned expansions in the state — economic losses that experts say contributed to Gov. Pat McCrory’s loss to Democrat Roy Cooper.
While Bishop’s opponents might view Bishop’s record as a liability — particularly his involvement with HB2 — some Republicans see it as evidence that he’s been in sync with voters for a long time.
“Talk about HB2 all you want, but he was right: the safety of women is a concern,” said Lawrence Shaheen, a Charlotte-based attorney and Republican campaign consultant.
Trump, Robinson and Bishop might share similar qualities, Shaheen said. But Bishop and his campaign team have demonstrated a high-level of proficiency that deserves respect in its own right.
Bishop “brings a level of credibility to the top of the ticket that currently does not exist,” Shaheen said. “The Republicans have just found their backstop if Trump destroys the top of the ticket."
Candidates for attorney general are running to fill the vacancy that will be created when the sitting attorney general, Democrat Josh Stein, leaves the post. Stein is running for governor.
Bishop wants his candidacy to demonstrate that the state Republican Party is finally taking the attorney general race seriously. A Republican hasn’t won the seat in 125 years in part, Bishop says, because the GOP hasn’t been able to raise as much money as Democrats. In 2012, the GOP party didn’t even field a candidate for the office.
With help from the powerful, conservative Club For Growth PAC, which endorsed Bishop Thursday, Bishop vowed to change that.
‘Populist form of conservatism’
Bishop is poised to face former state legislator Tom Murry in the GOP primary, and others might still enter the race. Murry, when asked about Bishop entering the race, said he thinks voters will appreciate his own experience as a former assistant district attorney and judge advocate in the North Carolina National Guard. Voters “want to make sure it’s the Department of Justice — not the Department of Politics,” he said.
Robinson also faces primary challengers: State Treasurer Dale Folwell and former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, among others. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence are among a group of Republicans hoping to beat out Trump for the party’s presidential nomination.
A Trump-Robinson-Bishop ticket would illustrate a shift in Republican politics — especially in a state that favors GOP candidates.
“Traditionally, the North Carolina Republican Party has been a bifactional group: one wing of social and evangelical conservativism, identified with someone like former U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms, versus the other wing of more moderate, business-oriented conservatism in the form of Jim Martin,” Bitzer said in an email.
“But in today’s Trump Republicanism, the social and populist form conservatism has really taken over and left the business-oriented moderatism as a distinct minority,” Bitzer said. So, many Republicans are trying to copy Trump’s style, he said.
The success rate of that style varies by competition, by state, even by year — and whether momentum is on the Republican side. With 15 months until the general election, political insiders say the results of North Carolina’s 2024 elections are too hard to predict.
Last year, multiple candidates who tried to emulate Trump on the campaign trail came up short in key swing state races, including Republican U.S. Senate candidates Herschel Walker of Georgia and Kari Lake of Arizona. Democratic groups even helped bolster some divisive Republicans in GOP primaries, hoping general election voters would then be more likely to reject them in favor of Democrats. In some cases, it worked.
Meanwhile, some who have carved their own path in North Carolina have found success.
Republican North Carolina U.S. Sen. Ted Budd won a close race last year by running a campaign that was neither “loud” nor “flashy,” he said in his acceptance speech last year. And Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, who’s seen as more center-right, has won two senate races since 2014.
‘Angriest’ GOP ticket
A Trump-Robinson-Bishop ticket would mean voters might see as many ads highlighting their words as voting records. Their demeanor is also expected to come under scrutiny.
Having Trump, Robinson, and Bishop all as Republican nominees would make for the “angriest” GOP ticket in years, said Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist.
They would be “the angriest nominees to ever move forward in North Carolina politics. And they’re angry about culture wars — not necessarily the things that make voters’ lives better,” he said. Cooper and Stein are among Jackson’s clients.
“Between Robinson and Bishop, there are hours and hours and hours of them saying things in their own voice that will repel swing voters in North Carolina,” said Jackson, the Democratic strategist. “Loud, obnoxious behavior might make for a great for a great republican primary candidate, but it doesn’t make for a good general election candidate.”
Gary Pearce, an adviser to former Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt, hopes the combative, bullying tendencies of Trump, Robinson and Bishop will backfire on Republicans in the next election.
“What I’m hoping as a Democrat is that young voters and women voters are going to be so turned-off by that ticket that they’ll turn out and vote in higher numbers,” Pearce said.
Pearce said he’s encouraged by a recent New York Times poll finding that many conservative or moderate voters won’t vote for Trump if he’s the nominee. At the same time, he says Democrats shouldn’t assume that unlikability means unelectability.
“What we tend to forget in politics is that people don’t keep up (with the news) as much as we do,” Pearce said. “You’ve got to give people something to vote for, not just against.”
Republican strategist Paul Shumaker agreed, adding that Democrats might have a longer way to go in appeasing their base.
The Democratic base skews younger and more racially diverse, he said. But the party struggled to turn out those voters in the midterm elections and failed to win a statewide race. And next year, their prospective presidential and gubernatorial nominees — Joe Biden and Josh Stein — are older and white.
“The key to winning North Carolina on both sides of the aisle is turnout,” Shumaker said, noting increased Republican participation in rural areas in recent elections.
“Republicans know how to turn their voters out,” he said. “Will Democrats learn how to fix their own problems?”