You may have heard us use the term "rapid intensification" a few times this hurricane season, specifically when it pertains to Hurricane Milton.
Read here to see why the storm won't play a direct role on North Carolina's weather this week.
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What is rapid intensification?
A storm rapidly intensifies when its central wind speed increases by 35 miles-per-hour over a 24-hour period.
In the case of Milton, its central speed increased by 95 miles-per-hour from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon. This is the third-largest example of rapid intensification on record.
Hurricane Wilma's speed increased by 125 miles-per-hour over a 24-hour period in 2005. Hurricane Felix's speed increased by 100 miles-per-hour in 2007.
At one point Monday evening, Milton's central pressure dipped below 900 mb (millibars). The record for lowest pressure in the Atlantic was (once again) Wilma in 2005.
When the air pressure lowers, air rushes toward that center of low pressure to essentially fill the void. Therefore, the lower the air pressure - the quicker the air moves. That's why we have seen such extreme wind speeds with Milton since Monday.
Why is Milton's intensification so extreme?
It's a widely-known fact that hurricanes thrive off of warm water.
When I attended NC State, Dr. Lian Xie taught us that the sea surface temperature needs to be at least 80°F in order for a hurricane to develop.
Currently, the water near Milton is reading in the upper 80s. Rapid intensification begins when ocean water temperatures are around 86° or higher. You also have calm upper level winds.
When the winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere are harsh, it disturbs the symmetry of a tropical system and doesn't allow it to strengthen.
What does Milton's future look like?
It is very tough for a storm to maintain Category 5 status for days at a time. Eventually, forecast data indicates that the storm will "weaken" to a Category 3 prior to landfall. This weakening will lead to a larger storm and impacts farther out from the center.
Think of a figure skater. When they bring their arms in, they spin faster in a narrower space. When they bring their arms out, they may not spin as quickly but their wingspan increases. That's how it works in terms of hurricanes/tropical systems too.
One extreme example of this is Hurricane Katrina in 2005. When it was a Category 5 storm, it was much smaller than when it made landfall as a Category 3.