You know the famous line, "It's quiet. Too quiet."
That's how everyone is feeling regarding the current state of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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September 10 - the date of this posting - is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, and there are currently no storms being outlooked, tracked, etc.
How odd/rare is this?
According to WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell, this is very rare.
The National Hurricane Center has archived its outlooks back to 2009. Every year - from 2009 to 2024 - has at least had something outlooked on September 10.
2025 is the only year that doesn't, and we're thankful...for now.
We've had six named storms so far this season. On average, the seventh named storm happens on September 3.
Why is it so calm at the moment?
Let's not downplay the fact that Chantal had a significant impact on parts of our area. It would be unfair to people in Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Durham, Roxboro and Oxford to say that the season (as a whole) has been a "dud" or a "bust."
At the moment, however, it's calm. A lot of that has to do with a wealth of dry air coming off the Sahara Desert. This dust is choking off any moisture within the Main Development Region.
In addition to the dry, dusty air, there's been an increased amount of wind shear from passing fronts in the Eastern U.S. These disruptive winds can prevent tropical systems from forming and strengthening.
Do you expect it to stay this calm?
Just because it's calm doesn't mean it's over.
According to the National Hurricane Center, 60% of storms happen after the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season.
Storms like Helene, Florence, Michael, Matthew, etc. were all storms that heavily impacted North Carolina after September 10.
The Climate Prediction Center's two-week outlook shows the potential for development within the Atlantic Basin.
Once the dry air "shuts off," there is still plenty of room for storms to work with. There are several areas of the Atlantic where the ocean waters are very warm.
It takes a temperature of 80 degrees to initiate tropical development, according to Dr. Lian Xie at North Carolina State University.
As someone who covered the aftermath of Helene in the North Carolina high country, I hope to never see another landfalling hurricane again. But we have to be realistic here and recognize that there's still a lot of the season left.
If you were to think of it as a baseball game, we're currently in the bottom of the third inning.
Let's just hope that more frequent cold fronts will help guide anything that develops far away from land.
Have questions about the weather and how it works?
Send me an email with the subject line 'Ask the Meteorologist' to cmichaels@jshu.net.