An area of low pressure is expected to develop just offshore this weekend along a front, and that will bring a good chance for showers across the region. Just small changes, though, with the track of that low pressure system will mean changes with how much rain parts of our area see. Let's look at what possible paths we could see and what that means for us.
Think of this area of low pressure like ones we talk about during the wintertime: if the track is closer to the coast that means we get more precipitation (only it is rain and not snow!). They are difficult to track, because like with tropical systems, until the area of low pressure develops, it's hard to know exactly where the low pressure system will move. Regardless, we know we'll have much cooler temperatures across the area.
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While there have some model solutions (path 1 below) that show rain farther inland and some heavier pockets of rain with the area of low pressure closer to the coast, more model solutions recently (path 2 below) show mainly light rain for most of our area, and the rain does not reach as far inland. Models do not have the low developing along the front until it is closer to the North Carolina coastline, which makes this especially tricky.
As the low moves north, we do know that our winds will shift to out of the north since winds flow counterclockwise around area of low pressure in the northern hemisphere.
Temperatures will reach the upper 60s-70 Friday afternoon, but Saturday will bring temperatures in the 50s throughout the day. We'll drop into the low 40s for our lows by Sunday morning.
