North Carolina's public schools could generate enough solar energy from their rooftops to match the annual electricity use of nearly 150,000 homes, according to a new analysis that found much of the state's school rooftop solar potential remains untapped.
Wake County has more potential than any other county in the state, according to the report from Environment North Carolina Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group. Researchers estimate 204 public and charter schools in Wake County could support about 75 megawatts of rooftop solar capacity, generating roughly as much electricity each year as 12,200 typical U.S. homes use.
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Statewide, researchers estimate roughly 2,400 public schools, about 90% of those analyzed, have at least some rooftop space that could support solar panels.
If fully developed, the available rooftop space could support more than 900 megawatts of solar capacity and produce about 1.6 terawatt-hours of electricity in the first year, according to the report. That's equivalent to about 1.2% of the electricity currently used in North Carolina each year.
Whether individual school districts could save money by installing solar is more complicated.
The report identifies several financial and policy barriers, including upfront construction costs, the condition of aging school roofs, utility rate structures and restrictions on financing arrangements commonly used by schools in other states.
Wake County leads the state
Researchers calculated the state's solar potential using federal data on school building footprints, satellite imagery and solar modeling tools. The analysis accounted for factors including rooftop obstructions and the condition of school roofs.
Wake County ranked first with an estimated 75 megawatts of potential rooftop solar capacity. Mecklenburg County was second with about 71 megawatts, followed by Guilford County with about 41 megawatts.
Closer to the Triangle, Durham County schools could support an estimated 24 megawatts of rooftop solar capacity, while Johnston County could support about 21 megawatts, according to the analysis.
Researchers estimate North Carolina's public schools collectively have more than 1,300 football fields' worth of rooftop space that could be suitable for solar panels.
But those numbers do not mean every rooftop included in the estimate is ready for solar panels.
The analysis used a random sample of 100 North Carolina public schools to estimate how much school rooftop space is generally free of major obstructions or steep slopes. Researchers then made additional adjustments for factors including roof condition.
The report describes the results as a statewide, screening-level estimate and cautions that the suitability of individual schools can vary significantly. A school would need a more detailed assessment to determine whether solar is technically and financially feasible.
Would solar save schools money?
Schools can be attractive locations for solar because they tend to have large rooftops and use significant amounts of electricity during the day, when solar panels are producing power.
But installing solar does not necessarily translate into the same savings at every school.
Unlike residential customers, schools and other large electricity users can pay demand charges based partly on their highest level of electricity use during a billing period.
Solar can reduce those charges when electricity production overlaps with a school's peak demand. The report notes, however, that the savings can be limited when those periods don't align.
Schools can also produce significant solar power during the summer, when some buildings have lower electricity demand.
The report says rising electricity prices could make solar more financially attractive over time. It cites federal data showing average commercial electricity prices in North Carolina increased 24% from 2021 to 2024, without adjusting for inflation.
Solar systems also require a significant upfront investment, and some schools would need roof, electrical or other building upgrades before panels could be installed.
One financing tool widely used for school solar projects elsewhere is largely unavailable in North Carolina.
Under a power purchase agreement, or PPA, a private company generally pays to install, own and maintain a solar system and sells the electricity it generates to the customer under a long-term agreement. That can eliminate much of the upfront cost for a school district.
North Carolina does not allow third-party solar PPAs, according to the report. The report cites national research finding that most solar capacity installed at K-12 schools has been financed through third-party ownership models, including PPAs and leases.
As of August 2024, 105 public and private schools in North Carolina had solar panels installed, according to national data cited in the report.
Potential impact on emissions
The report also examined how widespread school solar adoption could affect emissions from power plants.
Using a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency model, researchers estimated that fully developing the rooftop solar potential identified in the report could avoid about 1.3 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants each year.
The analysis also estimates reductions in nitrogen oxides and fine-particle pollution as solar generation reduces the amount of electricity needed from other power sources.
The estimates represent a scenario in which the state's identified school rooftop solar potential is fully developed. They are not projections of installations currently planned or expected to occur.
Solar installations can serve another purpose when paired with battery storage. Schools are often used as shelters or community gathering places during hurricanes and other emergencies. Solar panels paired with batteries and the necessary electrical equipment can provide some power during an outage, depending on the size and design of the system.
Some North Carolina schools already use smaller solar installations as educational tools. NC GreenPower's Solar+ Schools program has provided grants for solar arrays, weather stations, energy monitoring equipment and renewable energy curriculum at schools across the state.
Report recommends changes to state policy
Environment North Carolina Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group recommend that state lawmakers establish a solar schools grant program, allow third-party power purchase agreements and examine utility rate structures and interconnection policies that can affect the economics of school solar projects.
The report also recommends additional funding to help schools repair or replace roofs and make electrical upgrades necessary for solar installations.
Those recommendations come as North Carolina's electricity needs are growing and utility rates are increasing, putting more attention on how the state will meet future demand and how much customers will pay for electricity.
The analysis identifies school rooftops as one place where additional electricity could be generated without requiring additional land.