Democrat Roy Cooper maintains a wide lead in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new poll from Elon University. But Republican candidate Michael Whatley is gaining name recognition — a sign that the race could continue to tighten in the months ahead, pollsters say. 

Cooper, the former two-term governor, has an 11-point lead over Whatley among likely voters in the race for the seat being vacated by Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, according to the poll, which was released Wednesday. Among likely voters, 53% favored Cooper, while 42% favored Whatley. Five percent were undecided or planned to vote for someone else. 

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The survey of 800 North Carolina adults was conducted from July 23 to July 31, and has a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points for likely voters.

Other recent polls have pointed to a tighter race. A recent Fox News poll showed Cooper leading Whatley by 9 percentage points (53% for Cooper to 44% for Whatley). Cooper led Whatley by 4 points, 48% to 44%, in a Public Policy Polling survey released last month. 

The race has largely been framed as a contest between a well-known Democrat and a relatively unknown Republican. Cooper has served in public office for decades. Whatley, a GOP insider who led the Republican National Committee and the state party and is endorsed by President Donald Trump, hasn’t held public office. 

But the candidates and groups that support them have begun pouring money into advertisements. That appears to be helping Whatley stay competitive with Cooper, who has never lost an election and managed to win office in years when a Republican won North Carolina’s electoral college votes.

“While Roy Cooper continues to be much more familiar to voters than Michael Whatley, Whatley’s familiarity among voters has increased meaningfully between March and July,” Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said in a statement. “Moreover, among the roughly half of voters who have heard a great deal or some about Whatley, the race becomes very close.” 

Husser predicted that the margins between Cooper and Whatley could shrink by several points in the coming months as voters become more familiar with the candidates. 

“If you're pro-Cooper and you feel Cooper's got this, or if you're pro Whatley and you're feeling down in the dumps, I would encourage people not to feel that way,” Husser said in an interview with WRAL.

About 84% of registered voters in the new poll said they had heard about Cooper, who was North Carolina’s governor from 2017 to 2025 and previously served 16 years as the state’s attorney general. That’s up from 70% in the poll conducted in March. 

About 53% of registered voters, meanwhile, said they had heard about Whatley, up from 35% in March. Twenty percent said they had never heard of Whatley, down from 29% in March.  

The poll also gauged favorability of the candidates. 

Fifty-three percent of registered voters expressed favorable views of Cooper, up from 48% in March. Meanwhile, 36% had favorable opinions of Whatley, up from 25% in March.

In the latest poll, Cooper was favored by 93% of Democrats. Whatley was preferred by 84% of Republicans. Independents — who make up an enormous voting bloc in the state — split 49% for Cooper and 22% for Whatley. Third-party candidates Shannon Bray (Libertarian) and Michael Dublin (Green) had 1% and 2% support overall, respectively.

Gaining additional ground on Cooper will likely take significant work and investment, Husser said.

“There's going to need to be a lot of infusion of money and ads and get out the vote efforts and rallies over the next two months if Whatley's going to come close to closing this significant gap that he has with Roy Cooper,” he said. 

The poll also gauged approval of Trump and North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein. 

  • Trump’s approval rating improved slightly since March, but most respondents still disapprove of his job performance. Fifty-four percent of poll respondents said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, down a point from March. Meanwhile, 36% approve, up a point from March. Ten percent were unsure. 
    • Stein had a 46% job approval rating in the poll released Wednesday, up from 43% in March. One-quarter of voters disapproved of the job Stein was doing, down from 27% in March. Thirty percent were unsure.

      Election integrity

      The Elon poll gauged respondents’ opinions on a variety of other issues, including election integrity and support for data centers. Among the findings on elections: 

      • Sixty-three percent of registered voters said they were “very confident” (27%) or  “somewhat confident” (36%) that the election process overall will be fair. Twenty-nine percent said they had little or no confidence in there being a fair election process. Previous Elon polls have shown declining confidence that elections would be conducted fairly. Ahead of the 2020 election, Elon found that 69% of registered voters were very confident” (24%) or somewhat confident (45%) that the election process would be fair. 
        • Asked how big of a problem voter fraud is in the U.S., 37% of registered voters said it is a major problem, with 30% saying voter fraud is a minor problem. Twenty-four percent said it is not a problem at all and 9% said they are unsure. 
          • Registered voters were split on the threat of foreign interference in U.S. elections, with 39% saying it is a major problem, 35% saying it is a minor problem and 10% saying it is not a problem. Seventeen percent were unsure. 
            • Asked about the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, 55% said Joe Biden was the winner, while 33% maintained Donald Trump won that election and 12% were unsure. Ahead of the 2020 elections, 63% of registered voters said they would accept the result of the presidential election.

              Data center opposition

              Opposition continues to grow against data centers in the state. 

              Fifty-three percent said they oppose locating data centers in their communities, up from 44% in March. Meanwhile, 20% said they support data centers, down from 24% in March. About 27% remain unsure, down from 32%. 

              “As local governments in North Carolina have grappled with land use regulations and economic development questions regarding data centers over the last five months, we found that data centers have become more unpopular across major political and demographic divides,” Husser said.