Melinda Williams once found solace in the peaceful river winding past her property in Banner Elk, North Carolina. Today, after Hurricane Helene’s destruction, the river is a source of dread—a reminder of the force that tore her life apart. Last month, floodwaters came with such ferocity that they lifted her home off its foundation, sweeping away her memories, her dogs, and nearly her life.
“I was inside, and the water started rising so fast,” Williams recalled, standing amid the debris. “I thought, ‘I’m not going to survive this.’ I left a voicemail for my daughter, telling her I loved her.”
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Williams, an EMS worker and grandmother, was swept from her collapsing home into the water, navigating deadly debris and clinging to tree branches to fight the rapids. Against the odds, she survived, only to face the ruin of her home and the land she had cherished for 34 years. Now, amid the wreckage, she keeps asking: How did it come to this?
Like many across western North Carolina, Williams’ home was not in a FEMA-designated flood zone, so flood insurance wasn’t required, and she was unaware of the changing risks in recent decades. Her home was at least 50 yards from the river on an upward slope. FEMA’s maps rated her property’s flood risk as “minimal”—based on outdated models that focus on coastal surges and major river systems while ignoring smaller waterways like the one that destroyed her property.
A study by First Street Foundation, a nonprofit specializing in climate risk, reveals that North Carolina’s actual flood risk is three times greater than FEMA’s maps indicate.
In western North Carolina, the gaps in FEMA’s flood zones are even more pronounced. About 2,100 properties were in FEMA’s flood zone in Buncombe County compared to 19,500 identified as “at risk” by First Street. Helene’s impact highlights the need for updated maps that reflect the new reality of heavier precipitation from climate change and faster stormwater runoff from development.
“Seven to nine times as many properties in our model were at flood risk compared to FEMA’s models,” said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street. “Without FEMA’s coverage, residents are in the dark—they don’t think about flood insurance or build to withstand floods.”
Williams is one of countless residents left unprepared. She says she is struggling to get assistance from her homeowner's insurance and federal agencies, so her family made a GoFundMe campaign to help her relocate and rebuild. While she tries not to dwell on “should’ve, could’ve, would’ve” scenarios, Williams says she would have acted differently during Helene had she known the risk.
“It’s 2024—the technology is there,” Williams said. “It wouldn’t have changed the disaster, but it would have changed the lives lost.”
Federal and state agencies are working to update flood maps, but the task is complex. FEMA’s maps, mandated by Congress to guide flood insurance and development standards, are based on a model from the 1970s. The maps depict risk zones based on historical events, leaving out smaller water systems and the increase in severe rainfall events due to climate change.
A FEMA spokesperson acknowledged the maps’ limitations, noting that they “can lead to the misconception that properties outside of FEMA flood zones are safe from flooding.” FEMA is working on a risk-based approach to make maps more comprehensive, but timelines remain unclear.
Climate experts warn that as climate patterns shift, storms are expected to get more frequent and severe—making knowledge about potential flood risk even more important. Max Dugan-Knight, a climate data scientist at Deep Sky who studies flood risk, emphasized the need to understand climate vulnerabilities.
“These models are sophisticated and they give a really good overview of the risks. But this is a moving target, so everyone should be aware,” Dugan-Knight said.
For now, this gap in information means individuals must take the initiative. Real estate sites, including Zillow, have started adding First Street’s climate risk data to for-sale listings to better inform buyers. First Street has an address lookup on their site for homeowners to see climate assessment ratings, which, unlike FEMA’s maps, placed Williams’ property at the highest flood risk level.
Drew Gerling, a flood mitigation specialist with Floodproofing.com, says that many residents impacted by Helene found themselves without adequate coverage due to an underestimation of flood risk in their areas. “As a result, recovery has been slower and more financially devastating for these communities,” Gerling said.
Requests can be submitted to FEMA for map revisions, with around 1,500 proposed annually. However, FEMA hasn’t clarified how many of these requests lead to actual updates.
For now, Williams, living in temporary quarters as she rebuilds, hopes others in her community will become more aware of their flood risks. “I don’t want anyone else to go through what I did,” she said.
As climate patterns shift, the gaps in current flood risk maps leave many homeowners facing uncertainty. Without updated tools and resources, residents in areas like western North Carolina may continue to live with a false sense of security—until the next storm comes.