Fishel: 'No hurricane forecast path is exactly right'
>> THANK YOU.
>>> GREG FISHEL IS BACK WITH US
NOW.
THOSE FIRST PICTURES COMING OUT
OF HAITI SHOW US EXACTLY WHAT
WE ANTICIPATED FOR THAT ISLAND.
>> IT IS ALWAYS A SITUATION --
IT IS ALWAYS THE WAY THINGS
PLAY OUT WITH THESE BIG STORMS
IS THAT THEY MAKE LANDFALL AND
YOU SIMPLY DON'T HEAR ANYTHING
FOR A WHILE AND YOU CAN'T
BECAUSE THE COMMUNICATIONS ARE
OUT AND PEOPLE ARE TAKING CARE
OF MORE PRESSING NEEDS THAN
GETTING WORD OUT TO THE REST OF
THE WORLD.
BUT THEN, USUALLY, ABOUT WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS, YOU
UNFORTUNATELY FIND OUT THAT IT
IS AS BAD AS YOU HAD FEARED IT
WOULD BE.
HOPEFULLY, WE WON'T HAVE THINGS
QUITE AS BAD IN THE U.S. WHEN
THIS THING GETS CLOSE TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATER TOMORROW
AND FRIDAY.
BUT WE STILL NEED TO WATCH IT
BECAUSE IT IS GOING OVER SOME
OF THE WARMEST WATER IN THE
WESTERN HEM FEAR RIGHT NOW.
LET'S TAKE -- HEMISPHERE RIGHT
NOW.
THIS IS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
LAST 36 HOURS GOING BACK TO
YESTERDAY MORNING AT 8:00.
AS WE TAKE A LOOK AT THIS HERE,
YOU CAN SEE THE FIRST THREE
TRACKS THAT TOOK IT UP ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, EVEN
ONE OF THEM INLAND AND THEN THE
FLEE MOST RECENT TRACKS, VERY
CONSISTENT, TAKING IT MORE OUT
TO SEA.
NOW, THE ONE THING I WANT TO
STRESS HERE THAT IS WE TALK
ABOUT THE FORECAST FAN AND HOW
YOU DON'T CONCENTRATE ON THE
LINE.
YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THAT CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY.
LOOK AT ALL THESE FORECAST
TRACKS HERE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FOURTH AND FIFTH DAY ON
THESE LINES HERE.
ALL OF THOSE LINES FELL WITHIN
THE FORECAST BAND.
SO, IF WE ADOPT THAT
PHILOSOPHY, IF WE ARE COMMITTED
TO IT AND SAY IF I'M HE IN THE
FAN, I'M GOING TO ACT LIKE IT
IS COMING FOR ME AND IF IT
DOESN'T, I WON'T BE MAD, I'LL
BE THANKFUL, THEN UP IN OF THIS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN A SURPRISE.
SO WE KEEP STRESSING THE FACT
THAT NO HURRICANE FORECAST
TRACK IS EXACTLY RIGHT.
AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY, AND I
DIDN'T MEAN TO KID ABOUT IT BUT
I WAS TELLING MY FRIEND, IF THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER
YOUR HOUSE RIGHT NOW THEN YOU
KNOW WHERE IT IS PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO BE IN 48 OR 72 OR 96
HOURS.
THAT IS THE WAY THESE THINGS
GO.
THE FORECAST FAN HAD ALL OF
THIS COVERED VERY NICELY.
SO EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN A
FICKLE SYSTEM AND DIFFICULT TO
CALL, THE FAN PRETTY MUCH
COVERS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.
NOW, THE REASON IT HAS TAKEN
THE NORTHWEST TURN IS THAT
WE'VE GOT THIS BIG RIDGE OUT
HERE AND WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT
THIS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, HOW
AS IT BUILT BACK TO THE NORTH
APPEAR WEST, THAT WOULD FORCE
THE THING TO TAKE A TURN.
INSTEAD OF THE ASK IS BEING
LIKE THIS, IT GOES LIKE THIS
AND EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
OVER LIKE THAT.
THAT ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO MAKE
A NORTHWARD TURN AND THEN A
NORTHEAST TURN.
BUT WE STILL HAVE A QUESTION
TONIGHT ABOUT HOW SOON THAT IS
GOING TO HAPPEN.
IF IT HAPPENS SOONER, IT HEADS
OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NORTH
CAROLINA.
IF IT WAITS JUST A LITTLE BIT,
THE WAY OUR COAST JUTS OUT, IT
IS VERY EASY FOR IT TO GET UP
TO OUR SOUTHERN COASTLINE ON
SATURDAY.
SO THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
THERE BUT EVENTUALLY THE
OVERALL BLOW BECOMES WESTERLY
AND THE SYSTEM GETS CARRIED OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WHERE WE HOPE