North Carolina State University researchers on Tuesday released their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
The university’s researchers are calling for 12-15 named storms to form in the Atlantic.
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The number of named storms predicted is similar to recent averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. According to the university, the long-term (1951 to 2023) average of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1994 to 2024) is 15 named storms.
NC State researchers found that of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes.
From 1991-2000, there were an average of 14.4 named storms per hurricane season.
Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.
The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
NC State’s forecast comes after Colorado State University released its hurricane forecast at the start of April. Colorado State’s forecast calls for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.