A shift to an El Niño pattern will likely have the biggest impact on how much tropical activity we have this season. Let's dive into the forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) and break down how El Niño will affect the tropics.
CSU predicts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, which is slightly below average and lines up with that El Niño pattern.
Other WRAL Top Stories
According to NOAA, we are very likely to see that shift to El Niño conditions over the next few months, and that will persist through the end of the year. The red bars below show an increase to over a 60% chance of El Niño conditions, and that jumps to above 80% by the July-September time frame.
The El Niño pattern is characterized by warmer waters and more moisture in the eastern Pacific due to weaker trade winds. This typically creates more active conditions in the eastern Pacific due to less wind shear, while increased wind shear in the Atlantic limits activity.
We are only 52 days away from the start of the season. Remember that global forecasts should not have an impact on how you prepare for the season.
El Niño brings more moisture to the southern US, but it also depends on the location of the jet stream. If we can tap into this increased moisture, it would be a good sign for us for the summer and through the end of the year. We could hopefully get more precipitation to make up for the lack of rain we have had so far this year.
