Nearly half of North Carolina is in an Extreme Drought.
Parts of our area, including the Triangle, are under an "Exceptional Drought." That's something we haven't seen in 18 years.
Other WRAL Top Stories
It takes months to get into a situation like that, and it will likely take months to get out of it.
How much rain do we need to get out of this?
It would take a lot of rain for us to completely eliminate the drought, and you'd rather do it over a period of time rather than all at once.
It would take more than a foot of rain within a month, more than two feet of rain within three months and nearly three feet of rain in six months.
Let's take that six-month requirement as an example. We'd need anywhere from 32" to 37" of rain to bid farewell to the drought.
On average, we get 23.06" of rain in Raleigh from July through December.
The law of averages is not on our side.
What about this El Niño we keep hearing about?
What is El Niño?
I've answered this question quite a bit. But, if you're new here/haven't seen that, let's refresh.
El Niño refers to warmer-than-average ocean waters in the Equatorial Pacific. This plays a big part in the marine and fish industry in Peru.
This oceanic anomaly plays a role on the jet stream that drives weather systems in our part the country.
Conceptually, it infers a more active storm track across the southern half of the U.S.
The increased jet stream activity tears apart tropical systems, making those less likely (not impossible).
How much rain do we see in an El Niño?
Let's take the next six months of the year - July to December. Remember that - on average - we get 23.06" of rain during that time frame.
What about during El Niño years?
I took years when there was a present El Niño any time between July and December. Since 1950, I found 25 such years.
As you can see, most of those years actually yielded rainfall below the 23.06" average.
This year's El Niño is exceptionally strong. Does that make a difference?
According to the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies at the University of Washington, a strong El Niño is characterized as a temperature anomaly of 1.5°C to 2.0°C.
There were eight strong El Niño during July to December. Half of those yielded the rain we'd need to get out of the drought.
The most recent were in 2018 and 2015.
Conclusion
Yes, there's a chance that the projected El Niño helps us either chip away or get out of the drought. However, historically speaking, those odds are at a 16%.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows that the drought will likely continue through at least the end of September.
