The western U.S. has been dealing with record-obliterating temperatures for the last week.
Between March 17 and March 22, several major cities have seen temperatures that have shattered record highs for the month of March.
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Take Phoenix, Arizona, as an example. While 100-degree heat isn't rare in the desert city, it is during the month of March. Phoenix has eclipsed the century mark six straight days.
Three of those days have been at 105 degrees. Prior to this week, the city had never hit 105 degrees in the month of March. (Its records go back to 1896.)
There are other places, like Salt Lake City, that saw record low snowpack this past winter. This heat is only adding insult to injury for a town that relies on snowpack for water supply.
What's causing the early, historic heat wave?
While this fuels the debate surrounding anthropogenic climate change, we'll focus more on the immediate cause.
There is a strong ridge, or area of high pressure, that's stayed camped out over the western U.S. in recent days.
Even moving forward, some data suggest that the strength of the high will be two-to-three standard deviations above normal.
The air beneath high pressure sinks. When it sinks, it compresses. Compression causes the air to turn warmer and drier, resulting in a heat wave of these proportions so early in the spring.
An even deeper explanation into this anomalous heat wave is offered here.
Will the heat wave move toward North Carolina?
While it's highly unlikely that we see triple-digit heat, the root cause of the heat will likely move this way into the first week of April. Several pieces of reliable forecast data in the long-range show that happening.
That will likely land us in the 80s for the first week of April, and (who knows) we could even squeak out a rogue 90-degree day too.
Our first 90-degree day in 2025 was April 4.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's 8-to-14 day temperature outlook goes from March 31 to April 6, 2026.
It shows a high likelihood of above-average temperatures during that time frame.
We'll need to watch any storm system that emerges from the Rockies in the first week of April. That, in tandem with above-average warmth, could result in severe weather across the eastern half of the U.S.
March has been very warm here at home too
This comes on the heels of a (rather) historic March here at home. Records in Raleigh go back to the late 1800s.
So far, this March has been the third-warmest on record in the Triangle.
This is partially aided by the number of 80-degree days we've seen thus far. Through the March 23, we've seen eight days at or above 80 degrees. That's the most on record during that stretch.
It's resulted in "the pollening" happening rather quickly.
And it's just the beginning. Tree pollen, and the yellow pollen that results from pine trees, will be around for weeks to come.