A winter storm is likely to bring a significant amount of mixed precipitation to our part of North Carolina late Saturday and Sunday.
A lot of times -- when forecasting impactful weather -- we look toward the past to see if we can learn from it.
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While there is a vast database of storms, we narrowed the focus onto a few storms for the purpose of this story.
Which storm did you choose to compare?
- 2018 Snowstorm
The last time Raleigh saw more than 8" of snow in a two-day span was in December of 2018. While the surface pattern looks similar, there are differences in upper level temperatures between that storm and the one we expect this weekend.
Rather, we're likely looking at more mixing this time around.
- Historic Snowstorm of 2000
While the date (January 24 and 25) makes you think of the historic storm of 2000, we're not expected to see nearly two feet of snow from this storm.
Again, the patterns are significantly different from one another. That was a much stronger storm that was able to draw in colder air at all levels of the atmosphere.
- Winter Storm of December 2002
Meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner brought up a December 2002 ice storm in conversation Tuesday, so I looked into that pattern and how it compares to what's being modeled for this weekend.
>> Historic Raleigh snow: From the ‘Hard Winter’ of 1783 to the 21st century ‘snowpocalypse’
>> Triangle snowstorms through the years
Similarities vs. differences between 2002 storm and this weekend
It's important to note that no two storms are identical. If you were here in 2002 and remember that ice storm, the experience you had then may differ from what you get this weekend.
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In 2002, a strong Arctic high pressure system started from the Canadian Rockies and dove south into Montana and the Dakotas.
That's where our current system starts, though models show it being a bit stronger and drifting farther east to entrench our cold air at ground level.
The hope is that a stronger high would translate to colder air and more snow than ice, however, the trend is opposite of that wish.
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There are similarities in the amount of liquid-equivalent precipitation that fell and what's being modeled, too. If it were all liquid, it would've been 1.5" to 2.0." This translated to a general 1-3" of snow and sleet from the Triangle northward and 0.12" to 0.75" of freezing rain.
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In 2002, there was some snow and sleet. The greatest totals were towards the mountains and foothills, though totals decreased farther east. This is common, as you get more influence from warmer Atlantic waters the farther east you go.
The ice map is what's concerning from that storm, as there was a widespread swath of more than 0.25" of ice. This is when power outages begin.
Generally speaking, the graphic below is what you tend to expect at different ranges of ice.
Remember that when we talk about ice, we're talking about freezing rain. This clings, while sleet pings.
What are some trends you're seeing in the models for the weekend?
As of Wednesday morning, the European forecast model's group shows shrinking odds of big snow in the Triangle, which could imply more mixed precipitation.
The hurricane hunters are flying into the storm - which is currently off California's Baja Peninsula. Once that data gets fed into forecast models, they should hopefully get better at the finer details.
This means we should start putting numbers on a map and adjusting as the trends continue to unfold. This likely happens Thursday and/or Friday.
